Welcome to IOTAmarkets! -- IOTA is a quantum-resistant distributed ledger protocol launched in 2015, focused on being useful for the emerging m2m economy of Internet-of-Things (IoT), data integrity, micro-/nano- payments, and anywhere else a scalable decentralized system is warranted. IOTA uniquely offers zero fees, no scaling limitations, and decentralized consensus where users are also validators. The digital currency 'iota' has a fixed money supply with zero inflationary cost.
Did anyone else notice that blockchain.com no longer has the complete graph for the average Bitcoin confirmation time?
I remember going on blockchain.com, and being able to see all of the statistics regarding Bitcoin. I remember being able to just search up the average confirmation time on blockchain. Now that's removed as an option, and you have to search for the link through a google search. Even after doing this, the graph is not showing the full data of the history for average confirmation times. I used to be able to check stats even going back to 2017, but now it only allows me to search up stats back to August of 2018. The peak average confirmation time for Bitcoin was almost 11,500 minutes, and I can't search that up or find it anymore... Can someone help me out? Also any reason as to why blockchain.com doesn't have that option anymore?
CSW is right about 0-conf being 99.99998% secure after 20ms. To see why, you need to understand that bitcoin is a complete graph of extreme density and view the blockchain from a quantum mechanical perspective.
As bitcoin grows, the miners become more and more interconnected due to incentives, and the network distance approaches d = 1. This means that the communication times approach 0 regardless of how far apart the nodes are in physical space. Network space is all that matters, and the higher-degree of interlinking means that the distance between nodes in network space is very small. This is elementary network theory that Craig is an expert in. Pseudo-scientists talking about speed-of-light limitations miss this important fact. The speed of light is irrelevent. It is well known that entangled quantum particles exhibit faster than light communciation. The blockchain itself can be considered from the quantum perspective, as the transactions at its tip are always uncertain. And so there is a quantum entanglement between the various copies of the blockchain that each node has. Due to this entanglement, the tight interlinking of nodes, and the economic incentive of greed, the new quantum blockchain state triggered by a transactions submitted anywhere on the network propagates essentially instantly. The speed of light was never a problem and people pointing it out are just trying to discredit CSW.
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09-10 04:43 - 'I can understand the hate on IOTA - they've had a poor rollout and there are serious flaws with their execution, but their Directed Acyclic Graph based blockchain is completely novel and that alone really makes it stand out...' by /u/Farnswirth removed from /r/Bitcoin within 4-14min
''' I can understand the hate on IOTA - they've had a poor rollout and there are serious flaws with their execution, but their Directed Acyclic Graph based blockchain is completely novel and that alone really makes it stand out. A blockchain that doesn't require internet connection - holy shit man. Like, holy shit. And it's quantum resistant encryption, something that is STILL a huge question mark with bitcoin. To me that's a big deal. But why the hate on Sia? Every other blockchain has a serious problem with storage. Every other cloud storage platform has a serious problem with security. I mean sure, Sia has problems too and it's in its infancy but the potential for that tech is huge. ''' Context Link Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: Farnswirth
This graph shows Bitcoin price and volume (ie, blocksize of transactions on the blockchain) rising hand-in-hand in 2011-2014. In 2015, Core/Blockstream tried to artificially freeze the blocksize - and artificially froze the price. Bitcoin Classic will allow volume - and price - to freely rise again.
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/how-we-know-bitcoin-is-not-a-bubble/#selection-59.4-68.0 (Scroll down to see the graph - also note there is a typo in the legend: "Bitcoin market map" should say "Bitcoin market cap[italization]".) Without artificial limits, Bitcoin volume and price are naturally and tightly correlated. This tight, lockstep correlation between those two lines during 2011-2014 has been absolutely amazing - one of the tightest correlations you'll ever observe in any dynamic system anywhere, in economics, sociology, or nature. Price and volume rose (and fell) hand-in-hand for 4 years straight - one of the most majestic examples of emergent phenomena in the whole history of economics. Left to run its natural course, this graph would probably have continued in lockstep, and thus would have eventually gone into the history books of future generations, marking the inexorable emergence and dominance of the cryptocurrency known as Bitcoin - the inevitable triumph of humanity's first decentralized and permissionless store of value, medium of exchange, and unit of account - steadily rising through the years in price and volume - and in usefulness. Then in late 2014, a new company called Blockstream tried to block this natural progression. The oligarchs behind the ancien régime of debt-backed, violence-enforced infinite fiat thought they had figured out a clever way to attempt to make their last pièce de résistance while making some money too. They brought out their their usual grab-bag of assorted dirty tricks which they typically use to take down any new social or economic or political movement that promises to liberate people from the stranglehold of private central bankers:
They bought off the Core developers, bringing them into the Blockstream corporation, with a measly initial $ 21 million in funding, and now adding another measly $ 55 million (mere chump change compared with the tsunami of trillions of dollars in wealth which Bitcoin's market cap could eventually represent).
They figured out how to "play" the Core devs like fiddles, turning them into "useful idiots": taking advantage of their cypherpunk sensibilities and economic innocence in order to trick them into thinking that the only metric of decentralization was "The blocksize must remain small enough for Luke-Jr to run a node over a slow-ass internet connection in the backwaters of Florida" - while making them ignore all other metrics, in particular: decentralization of mining, and price & adoption.
So far, Blockstream thinks they're winning in their battle to control Bitcoin.
They succeeded (during 2015) in splitting the community, maybe even creating even a few more useful idiots in the process.
They succeeded (during 2015) in suppressing the price: as you can see by observing how the lockstep correlation between price and volume diverged in 2015, with the price now lagging and sagging below the volume for the first time ever.
https://imgur.com/jLnrOuK But can they keep spreading around their fiat and FUD to continue fooling all the people all the time? Probably not. Because... Now you can choose to run a repo without Blockstream's artificial scarcity on blocksize and transactions on the blockchain. Now, instead of running the Bitcoin Core repo from Blockstream, you can run any one of these another tested and deployed repos, which do notartificially limit the blocksize to 1 MB:
Bitcoin is a natural, market-based and community-based, emergent phenomenon. At its heart, in the words of Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin is a P2P Electronic Cash System where Alice "A" can send to Bob "B" some amount of Coins "C", secured via a cryptographic signature. It may come as a shock to certain people's egos, but even if most of the devs were to suddenly stop working now - the current system would probably work fine for the next few years - with investors and businesspeople continuing to gradually increase the price and volume in accordance with the desires of the worldwide market, and miners and full-nodes continuing to gradually increase the "max blocksize" in accordance with the capacity of the worldwide infrastructure - and everyone continuing to innovate and participate in the growth of the system in accordance with the desires of the worldwide community. Bitcoin doesn't really need a whole lot of interference from devs trying to centrally plan what the "max blocksize" should be - or mods trying to centrally control what the "consensus of opinions" should be. These kinds of things are better left to just naturally emerge on their own. Central planning and control are not needed. As we have already seen, when the market is allowed to determine Bitcoin price and volume on its own, they both naturally go up, hand-in-hand - while the value of centrally-planned fiat goes down and and down. And when the community is allowed to determine upvotes and downvotes on its own, the quality of debate naturally goes up - while the quality of centrally-controlled debate on censored forums goes down and down. We all know that Bitcoin is supposed to be trustless and permissionless. Bitcoin development should also be egoless. As a dev or a mod, it's hard to "step aside" and let the market or the community decide. It's much more tempting to interfere: enforce a limit here, delete a comment there. But the market and the community are emergent phenomena. They work best when devs and mods learn to put aside their egos and "step back" and let the market and the community do what they will. This is the raison d'être of Bitcoin Classic, Bitcoin Unlimited, and Bitcoin XT: learning to let the market and the community decide again - learning to step back again, and let the price and volume go up again, with no unnecessary interference from devs or mods. https://imgur.com/jLnrOuK
CSW is right about 0-conf being 99.99998% secure after 20ms. To see why, you need to understand that bitcoin is a complete graph of extreme density and view the blockchain from a quantum mechanical perspective. /r/btc
Bitcoin mentioned around Reddit: A good article (not mine) on understanding BlockChain (bitcoin) vs the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) (IOTA). It’s important to know about this as we move beyond blockchain and into the future 😇 /r/Iota
Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Blockchain Charts Die vertrauenswürdigste Quelle für Daten auf der Bitcoin-Blockkette. Währungsstatistik Blockdetails Mining-Informationen Netzwerkaktivität Wallet-Aktivität Marktsignale Beliebte Stats Blockchain startup The Graph has launched a new incentivised testnet called Mission Control — where indexers will operate nodes, compete in missions and contribute to improving The Graph Network.. Wolfgang Albrecht, Co-Founder of Staking Facilities said: “There are heaps of crypto projects competing to do the same thing, and then there are those that are on the frontier, building novel ... The bitcoin blockchain as a transaction graph. There are several possible ways of representing the bitcoin blockchain as a graph. Arguably the easiest one is a graph where the nodes represent ... The total supply of BTC is limited and pre-defined in the Bitcoin protocol at 21 million, with the mining reward (how Bitcoins are created) decreasing over time. This graph shows how many Bitcoins have already been mined or put in circulation. Notes. The Bitcoin reward is divided by 2 every 210,000 blocks, or approximately four years. Some of the Bitcoins in circulation are believed to be lost ... Bitcoin Rainbow Rainbow Chart guy) - Sockpuppet for @blockchaincent - Co-Host KONSENS & NONSENS Podcast. Beiträge aus dem Blog. Bitcoin Supply – Visualized. 9. September 2020 // Data. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (live) 3. September 2020 // Daten. Cryptocurrency World Map – Search interest by country. 14. Juni 2020 // Data . Cryptocurrency Correlation Study. 20. April 2020 // Data. Bitcoin / DAX ...
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